Sanjiv Thomas
Research Associate
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Europe Is Doomed
Peter Berezin, our Chief Economist, recommends selling European assets on any rallies. Peter argues repairing Europe’s deep structural problems may require dismantling much of the welfare state, which is unlikely to happen before a major crisis. Lower oil…
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The Real Meaning Of The Midterms
Our GeoMacro strategists view the midterm result as evidence that US institutions are prevailing over an unorthodox president. They expect policy adjustment and a decent backdrop for equities, although the Iran war remains an immediate and acute risk to the…
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AI, Rates, Energy – Are We At The Peak?
Our Portfolio Construction strategists remain bullish on risk assets but express that view through barbells across the portfolio. October looked cataclysmic from the headlines, with neocloud debt spreads spiking and Alphabet suffering its worst one-day loss…
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GBP Chartpack: Carry Cushion Masks Structural Cracks
GBP offers attractive carry today, but the market’s aggressive rate hike pricing is likely to turn into a headwind within 12 months. Our latest Currency Chartpack examines the valuation, growth, rate, and policy drivers of the pound, showing why the long-term outlook is less rosy than near-term data implies.
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Central Bank Monitor Update: The Limits Of The New Tightening Cycle
Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricing is justified and identify tactical opportunities across global bond and currency markets.
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Central Bank Monitor Update: No Move Until June
Central banks remain on hold amid heightened uncertainty. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.
Deborah Acri, Jeremie Peloso, Eugenia Pan, Sanjiv Thomas