Recent economic data have been reasonably firm. We will cut our 12-month US recession probability to 40% from 50% if the Supreme Court strikes down President Trump’s tariffs. This would take our scenario-weighted year-end 2026 price target for the S&P 500 to 6375 from 6200....
US Treasury yields require a higher premium for both geopolitical risk and inflation risk, but higher bond yields are not necessarily bad for stocks....
Our top five "Black Swan" risks this year are familiar but all too realistic in the current climate. Investors should stay overweight US equities and EM-ex-China until some hurdles are cleared....
The 10-year Treasury term premium is now competitive with Baa- and Ba-rated credit spreads. Even without term premium compression, duration carry trades could outperform credit carry trades in a low rate vol environment....
This report analyzes the structural and cyclical factors driving service spending in Chinese households and highlights sectors with promising investment opportunities for the next 6 to 12 months....
Our clients know that we have been very generous when it comes to analyzing President Trump’s policy choices and negotiating style. In our view, ascribing preferences to the man is a poor analytical framework. President Trump goes into every situation trying to maximize his gains, only adjusting his...
Europe is in a geopolitical sweet spot. Exaggerated fears of Russian military aggression and abandonment by the United States, as well as increased competition from China, create a geopolitical imperative to stimulate, reflate, and reform. Taken together with fading cyclical headwinds, it suggests t...
The precious metal bonanza has not resolved the South African economy’s plight. Nor did it improve its public debt sustainability issues. Investors should brace for a reversal in South African stocks, bonds, and the currency....
In our 2026 inflation outlook, we explain why 2026 will bring more disinflation, upside risks remain contained, and how to position in ILBs across major markets....
