In this month’s Beta Report, we assess what that structural tension means for investors under two distinct scenarios. In our base case – a multipolar world order – Australia's position turns out to be more advantageous than it appears. The great power capital expenditure race generates demand for pr...
US growth remains positive and is now improving, with the economy seemingly exiting Slowdown and proceeding into Expansion. Markets are reflecting the shift, rewarding revenue growth and capex growth, while earnings expectations continue to advance. The backdrop remains supportive, but expectations ...
The divergence across frontier markets is likely to widen. Kenya, Kazakhstan, and Sri Lanka are well placed to outperform, while Pakistan is vulnerable. We offer several trade ideas to capture this divergence....
A market becomes inefficient, illiquid, and vulnerable to a phase transition when the ‘wisdom of crowds’ switches to the ‘madness of crowds.’ This switch from market wisdom to market madness may be the most significant recurring behavioural opportunity in active fund management and can be exploited ...
The dollar's retreat is creating the most compelling window for euro internationalisation since Maastricht, but Europe is missing the one instrument that would make it real. In this report, we make the case for the Eurobond, assess which model is most likely to prevail, and explain why the trade is ...
Democrats are likely to win big in this year's midterm elections. Our new quant model still slightly favors Republicans for the Senate, but we expect the oil shock to deliver surprise Democratic victories....
The April CPI report showed clear evidence of the direct effect of higher oil prices on inflation but, so far, limited evidence of passthrough to core....
