Banks have had an amazing run, and while such strong performance is unlikely to repeat, there is still oomph left in the trade thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, stronger demand for loans, a steeper yield curve, and a strong pipeline of capital market activity. Key risks are further ...
President Trump is only the second president to have won, lost, and won again in US history, so today’s inaugural address was unlike any other since Grover Cleveland in 1893....
We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model....
This week, our screeners cover views on Trump 2.0, defensive US equity sectors, and a pullback in Singapore equities. Our first screener aims to hedge longer term inflation risks that Trump 2.0 will likely generate, targeting US equities that are highly correlated with future inflation expectations....
Private Real Estate and Public REITs differ beyond just being liquid or illiquid. Looking through surface-level metrics uncovers valuable choices for investors. When analyzing the opportunity for today’s next dollar, Private Real Estate is more attractive....
Inauguration Day or shortly thereafter will see either a global tariff of 10% or targeted but substantial tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. Treasury yields will rise on tax cuts, the dollar will stay strong, yet oil will also continue to rally, causing equity volatility in the near term....
Political instability combined with the maths of debt sustainability is much more concerning in France than in either the UK or the US. Go long UK gilts versus French OATs and go tactically long GBP/USD....
Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We review the performance of the portfolio in 2024 and discuss how to best position a global fixed income portfolio following the sharp rise in yields during the last months....
