Latest from BCA Research
September’s weak consumer spending data challenge the K-shaped recovery narrative and suggest that spending will slow to match already-weak employment growth.
The US High Quality portfolio outperformed its benchmark through November, returning 1.13%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 0.08%. Our US High Quality SMID portfolio experienced a decline in performance this month. The portfolio returned -2.27%, underperforming its MSCI US Small and Mid Cap benchmark by 357bps.
We got Trump's tariff shock and backtracking correct and predicted Israel's attack on Iran. But we missed the China rally — and there is still no Ukraine ceasefire.
Bitcoin’s recent volatility masks a deeper story – the widest disconnect from traditional macro drivers since 2022. With sentiment now deeply negative and institutional demand still building, the conditions for a realignment with fundamentals are falling into place.
The high-frequency Joshi Rule confirms that the US labour market is holding up. Equity investors should regard 5-10 percent selloffs as tactical buying opportunities. Bond investors should stay underweight US duration. Plus, a new high-conviction trade is to go overweight the 30-year German bund versus the 30-year US T-bond.
