Latest from BCA Research

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust. Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day). And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.

The SNB remains on hold, but the bar for further easing is falling quickly – even as Switzerland secures a breakthrough trade deal with the US. With CHF now pressing against a policy ceiling, the franc looks increasingly attractive as a funding currency.

Special Report

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals.

Special Report

The bull versus bear battlelines are drawn for 2026: The friendliest Fed meets the most concentrated stock market rally ever. This last report of the year goes through the 10 key views for 2026 that emanate from this fascinating setup.

The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates.

Special Report

We are constructive on equities in 2026, as monetary easing, fiscal support, GenAI-related capex, and strong earnings growth are unequivocally positive for the asset class. Valuations are extended, but concerns about a bubble are overstated. Despite the favorable backdrop, we expect the S&P 500 to return only 5–10%, ending 2026 between 7,200 and 7,500.

We had a good year in 2025. For two years now, we have been unabashedly bullish, proving that the GeoMacro framework works.

Special Report

Institutional investors continue to avoid US Real Estate, but fundamentals and valuations are aligned for a compelling multi-year entry point. As one of our highest conviction overweights, we remain bullish on Office, Industrial, and Retail – Multifamily still doesn’t make the cut.

Special Report

We present our five key views for global fixed income markets in 2026. A year that will see the global easing cycle come to an end.

Washington’s new strategy sheds liberal idealism for hard-edged multipolar realism: spheres of influence accepted, allies chided, Asia red lines firm, Latin America elevated, and AI-plus-digital assets crowned as national-security sinews. The result is a world steadied by US offshore balancing – an unexpectedly bullish backdrop for emerging markets in the years ahead.