While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet....
Sentiment will stay positive for now, but downside risks are rising. Investors should proceed cautiously in stock picking and portfolio construction at this juncture, given rising economic and policy uncertainty, which threaten market sentiment, and more broadly, the current bull-market....
President Trump’s inaugural speech outlined his second term agenda. The theme was that the US will become “far more exceptional” than it already is. Trump pledged to reverse America’s decline, rebalance the justice system, streamline government, protect borders, pare back inflation, restore manufact...
There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have put the pieces of the puzzle together to help clients see the big ...
Banks have had an amazing run, and while such strong performance is unlikely to repeat, there is still oomph left in the trade thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, stronger demand for loans, a steeper yield curve, and a strong pipeline of capital market activity. Key risks are further ...
President Trump is only the second president to have won, lost, and won again in US history, so today’s inaugural address was unlike any other since Grover Cleveland in 1893....
We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model....
This week, our screeners cover views on Trump 2.0, defensive US equity sectors, and a pullback in Singapore equities. Our first screener aims to hedge longer term inflation risks that Trump 2.0 will likely generate, targeting US equities that are highly correlated with future inflation expectations....
