Latest from BCA Research
Despite October’s AI selloff, indices remain resilient thanks to historically high dispersion. We remain bullish, but with barbells across the portfolio. Hedge equity with equity: Overweight Technology and Healthcare. Remain overweight high yield. Downgrade linkers and upgrade nominal bonds. Upgrade tail risk protection to overweight as a hedge against a resumption of the war.
Today's report examines several of the most interesting ideas we've heard over two weeks of meetings and calls with investors.
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight to equities and an overweight to bonds and cash. The model is bullish on the US dollar, negative on gold, very negative on copper, and neutral on oil.
France’s fiscal mess is far from over, but the bond vigilantes may have gotten ahead of themselves. We book profits on short OATs, eyeing another opportunity in early 2027 as election risks resurface. Meanwhile, French equities are too cheap to ignore. We tactically buy on depressed valuations.
GBP offers attractive carry today, but the market’s aggressive rate hike pricing is likely to turn into a headwind within 12 months. Our latest Currency Chartpack examines the valuation, growth, rate, and policy drivers of the pound, showing why the long-term outlook is less rosy than near-term data implies.
The UK faces many challenges but secessionism can be contained.
The Fed will hike rates at a pace of 25 bps per quarter until either falling inflation or tighter financial conditions cause it to stop.
After a sharp five-year correction, China's top-tier housing markets will likely bottom out late next year. The rest of the country, however, will keep struggling with oversupply.