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Monetary Policy

FICC
Worst Of Both Worlds: US Labor Market Chartpack

Please note that going forward we will no longer send email alerts when we publish our regular US labor market and inflation chartpacks. These chartpacks will still be published on the website on days of US employment report and CPI releases.

Ryan Swift
2 hours ago
USLabor MarketMonetary Policy
Essentials
Bank of England: Reluctantly Hawkish
The Bank of England’s 25bps hike to 4% adds to hawkish near terms pricing but creates room for downside surprises in rates later next year. The move was expected, but the unanimous vote to increase rates, with one member favoring a 50bps hike, contrasted with…
Artem Sakhbiev
23 hours ago
UKMonetary PolicyEconomy
Essentials
Mexico: One Cut, Then Patience
Banxico cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%, contrary to expectations of a hold. The cited reason is the need for a one-time adjustment to tackle the slack in the economy. Headline inflation has slightly accelerated to 3.62%, and core inflation has…
Armen Hamazaspyan
23 hours ago
MexicoMonetary PolicyEconomy
Essentials
Brazil: Rates On Hold, BRL On Edge
The BCB held its policy rate at 13.75% and will adopt a hawkish stance to rebuild credibility. Yet monetary policy faces a dilemma: a weaker currency and El Niño argue for tightening to quell inflation, while slowing growth from a waning fiscal impulse could…
Max Malakhveitchouk
1 day ago
BrazilMonetary PolicyBrazilian Real
Essentials
RBA Moves To Wait-And-See
Australian yields and the AUD are likely to trade lower next year in response to a more neutral RBA message and slowing growth. The RBA raised the cash rate 25bps to 4.85% on a 6-3 vote, marking the fifth hike of 2026 and the highest policy rate in 18 years.…
Artem Sakhbiev
3 days ago
AustraliaMonetary Policy
Essentials
Indonesia: A Value Trap
Our EM strategists see Indonesian financial assets as a value trap rather than a buying opportunity. There is room for the ongoing sell-off in Indonesian assets to run further as the country’s macro backdrop deteriorates. President Prabowo’s growth push will…
Gabriel Gosselin
1 week ago
IndonesiaFiscal PolicyMonetary Policy
Essentials
Measuring AI Moats
Bank Credit Analyst

Marking the debut of Chief Technology and Innovation Strategist Matt Dyson, this month’s Global Market Outlook examines Matt’s views on the presence and durability of moats for companies at various segments of the AI chain.

Doug Peta
1 week ago
AIMonetary PolicyEconomy
Essentials
The ECB Puts More Weight On Growth
The ECB is unlikely to take interest rates above neutral unless energy prices move meaningfully higher from here. The European Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with expectations. Compared with June and September, the statement…
Jonathan LaBerge
1 week ago
Euro AreaMonetary PolicyEconomy
FICC
Canadian Bonds Have Room To Outperform
Special Report

Markets expect further BoC tightening, but Canada’s economic backdrop casts doubt on how far rates can rise. We assess to what extent inflation, the labor market, and housing will limit the hiking cycle, and explore the implications for Canadian bonds and the CAD.

Deborah Acri
1 week ago
CanadaMonetary Policy
FICC
The Go-Slow Fed Tightening Cycle

The Fed will hike rates at a pace of 25 bps per quarter until either falling inflation or tighter financial conditions cause it to stop.

Ryan Swift
1 week ago
USMonetary PolicyGov Sovereigns/Treasurys

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