Economic Growth
France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s updates are due on Monday and the Eurozone CPI will be…
Annual BEA data revisions resulted in a significant upward revision in GDP growth since Q2 2020, led by stronger consumption growth and more robust real disposable income growth than previously believed. Revisions also show that the savings rate has been on…
Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.
This week has not been short of developments on Chinese policy. After unleashing a monetary policy blitz, the authorities held an unscheduled Politburo meeting resulting in a pledge to take actions towards stabilizing the housing market and to support fiscal…
In a widely expected move, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate for a third consecutive meeting on Thursday, from 1.25% to 1.00%. The move marked President Thomas Jordan’s final policy decision and his incoming successor Martin Schlegel…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity and Energy strategy service, even though US crude output will continue rising, a meaningful growth acceleration is unlikely. US producers adjust their output in response to market conditions. In the past, a selloff in…
China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance.
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.5% to 3.25% in September, marking its third cut this year. It embarked on its easing cycle in May, leading many other DM central banks, and has been sending increasingly dovish messages…
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly shed 6.9 points to 98.7 in September. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components declined, by 10.3 and 4.6 points respectively. The decline in morale in September was broad-based across…
In a widely expected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in September. All measures of Australian CPI inflation remain well above the RBA target range. The Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund and other state-level energy…