Economic Growth
The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI improved from 49.5 to 50.4 in September, breaking a 17-month contraction streak. It corroborated solid broad-based retail sales growth in July and August. Confidence in the outlook also improved. That said, we wouldn’t…
The JPM Global manufacturing PMI declined at an accelerating pace in September (49.6 to 48.8). Moreover, international trade flows deteriorated notably with the new export orders component falling from 48.4 to 47.5. A sector breakdown underscores broad-based…
The ISM manufacturing PMI remained constant in September at 47.2, against expectations of a slower pace of decline and extending a six-month contraction streak. Measures of production and domestic demand decelerated at a notably slower pace while foreign…
The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay defensive.
Preliminary estimates suggested that US durable goods orders stagnated in August after having surged 9.9% m/m in July, and beating expectations they would decline. Excluding the volatile transportation component, however, durable goods grew a robust 0.5%.…
Our expectation that a looming US recession will morph into a global recession remains intact. US monetary easing will only take effect with a lag and current deteriorating economic conditions are the product of past easing. Meanwhile, China’s stimulus may…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Market Strategy service, the monetary and fiscal policies announced last week are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China. Below are actions the authorities need to undertake for our colleagues to…
US nominal personal income growth decelerated to a 0.2% pace in August, from 0.3% in July, missing expectations that it would accelerate. Nominal personal spending also disappointed, growing at a slower 0.2% pace from 0.5%. In real terms, spending barely…
France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s updates are due on Monday and the Eurozone CPI will be…
Annual BEA data revisions resulted in a significant upward revision in GDP growth since Q2 2020, led by stronger consumption growth and more robust real disposable income growth than previously believed. Revisions also show that the savings rate has been on…