Latest from BCA Research
Our high-frequency indicators show China’s growth momentum weakening further in September, increasing the likelihood of new stimulus in the weeks ahead. We remain tactically cautious on Chinese equities, but strategically constructive on offshore Chinese shares.
Putin’s position is weakening as Trump backs Ukraine, NATO threatens retaliation, and Ukrainian drones cripple Russian refineries. Moscow’s petty war aims embolden Eastern Europe, raising NATO-Russia confrontation risks. We remain long oil and long European defense stocks.
We give a one-third probability of a federal government shutdown. It probably will not happen before November. At worst, government shutdowns only cause temporary market volatility.
While it is not yet time to bet against risk assets, we push back on the increasingly popular ideas that the wealthiest households and/or AI-related capex can keep the expansion going despite the wobbling labor market.
One year in, the EU is progressing slowly in implementing Mario Draghi's recommendations to restore Europe’s competitiveness. The lack of progress is due more to the various pushbacks from European capitals and the lack of proper funding than a lack of ambition. Our overall assessment remains positive, given the EU is adopting many of the priorities from Draghi’s report.
Germany is moving forward with implementing the large fiscal and defence spending announced earlier this year. Fiscal reforms are also positive, though they will fall short of expectations.
US GDP growth appears to have accelerated even as employment growth has faltered. We will make a final decision in early October when we publish our next Strategy Outlook, but most likely, we will cut our 12-month US recession probability to 40%-to-50% from 60% and turn tactically neutral on stocks, while still retaining a modest equity underweight over a 12-month horizon.
According to our latest client poll, most respondents are optimistic about the Generative AI's potential. Investors remain divided on whether current equity valuations reflect a bubble. Economic concerns continue to center on bond yields and the risk of stagflation, while relatively few clients anticipate a recession. In terms of portfolio positioning, an overweight in Technology received the strongest endorsement.