FICC

Mortgage spread tightening has run its course. Any further drop in mortgage rates will necessitate lower Treasury yields.

This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.

Our Q1 outlook maps global growth, curve dynamics, and policy surprises, which we then translate to our recommended global fixed income portfolio allocations and trades.

Measures of labor market utilization improved in December, ruling out a January cut and significantly reducing the odds of a March cut.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2026.

From steepening to flattening. As the BoJ continues to tighten in 2026, we show why curve flatteners are finally the right trade.

Special Report

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.

Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026

The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates.

Special Report

We present our five key views for global fixed income markets in 2026. A year that will see the global easing cycle come to an end.