CoreMacro
| Emerging Markets
Research on emerging economies, from in-depth country reports to calls on EM stocks, bonds, and currencies.
To produce a moderate economic recovery, at least RMB 3 trillion in additional government expenditures is needed in H1 2025. Our bias is that Beijing is not yet ready to launch such a massive fiscal support measure. Hence, volatility-adjusted equity returns in China will be poor.
Conditions are not yet in place for going long EM stocks in absolute terms and upgrading their allocation from neutral to overweight relative to global equities. The broad trade-weighted US dollar will likely rebound in the next three-to-four months, and global trade will contract. The recent weakness in the US dollar is driven by the narrative that the Fed’s easing cycle is bearish for the greenback, but we believe this thesis is flawed.
India’s credit impulse has turned negative. Government spending is contracting. The country’s growth will remain subdued; and both drivers of stock prices – profits and multiples – are headed lower at a time when equity valuations are at a record high.
The politically induced selloff in Mexican markets has gone too far. In our view, investor fears about the constitutional changes are largely unwarranted. These reforms will have little to no ramifications for the economy in the foreseeable future, and it is not clear to what extent they can undermine Mexican democracy. Moreover, the market riot is not justified by the country’s decent macro shape. All in all, Mexican markets will resume their outperformance versus their EM peers sooner rather than later.
We believe the PBoC’s recent policy stimulus might bolster investor confidence, potentially stabilize onshore Chinese equity prices, and provide modest support to offshore stocks. However, they are unlikely to significantly boost economic growth in the mainland.
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) raised interest rates last week. Is this the commencement of a major tightening cycle that will persist well into next year? Despite this move, we maintain that the BCB will cut interest rates substantially next year. We believe the Lula-nominated board members are playing the long game: voting to hike rates until year-end to establish credibility with financial markets in order to get a pass at easing monetary policy in early 2025.
The Vietnamese economy is growing at a strong 7%. Why, then, are Vietnamese stocks struggling? Should investors expect a revival soon?
The undercurrents of global financial markets signal deteriorating global growth conditions. There is little cash on the sidelines in the US, the Euro Area, and Japan. If the budding bear market resembles the 2000-2003 one, EM stock prices are unlikely to outperform global equities in the initial leg but could outperform in the latter stage of the global selloff.
