Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

The trade war hit Canada’s economy hard, but the worst is over. In our latest update on Canada, we assess the aftermath of the trade shock, the new budget, and the effects of BoC easing. We outline what this means for duration, the Loonie, and Canadian stocks heading into 2026.

Special Report

As hyperscalers expand global data center capacity, they are igniting a powerful industrial cycle. Capital Goods and Materials companies supplying turbines, grid components, cooling systems, and advanced connectivity materials for data center and energy infrastructure are emerging as key beneficiaries, positioned to capture structural growth as GenAI demand reshapes the economy.

The Nordic central banks are now aligned in pause mode, but their economies are diverging. With Swedish prospects improving and Norwegian headwinds mounting, we are turning overweight on Swedish equities and shorting NOK/SEK.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2025.

The US High Quality portfolio underperformed its benchmark through October, returning -3.42%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 2.23%. Our US High Quality SMID portfolio experienced a modest decline in performance this month. The portfolio returned -0.27%, underperforming its MSCI US Small and Mid Cap benchmark by 4bps.

The dollar rebound has paused, but not yet peaked. With near-term momentum still intact, we see room for further upside before structural headwinds reassert, favoring selling into strength.

Understanding asset performance across Growth and Inflation regimes helps investors construct and manage balanced portfolios. Our first G&I Catalog report examines Hedge Fund strategies. Global Macro and Managed Futures offer the strongest protection in Stagflation-like periods, when traditional assets typically struggle. Since 1998, these regimes have occurred less than 10% of the time—but that may not hold true going forward.

In the absence of official government data, investors are turning to alternative sources to gauge the direction of the US economy. Our analysis of this data suggests that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace over the past two months. If the Supreme Court were to strike down the tariffs, this would reduce the near-term odds of a recession while raising the odds of overheating.

The Bank of England will resume rate cuts in December after the autumn budget is passed. Today’s Strategy Insight discusses what this means for UK gilts and the pound.

Long-term investors should own gold. The network effect that makes gold the physical ‘insurance asset’ of choice will generate long-term outperformance. But long-term investors should also own bitcoin. The network effect that makes bitcoin the digital ‘insurance asset’ of choice will generate long-term outperformance that betters even gold.