We analyzed US bear markets since 1954 to identify reliable indicators for distinguishing new equity bull markets from bear market rallies. Our checklist of indicators does not suggest it is time to overweight equities in a multi-asset portfolio. Remain underweight on equities, overweight on fixed i...
Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have less exposure to geopolitical risk....
In this Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Fixed Income Strategy teams argue that as the lagged impact of higher interest rates hits the Canadian economy, what will initially appear as a potential hard landing will morph into a mild slowdown. During the process, Canadian gove...
In Section I, we address the recent improvement in several data releases over the past three months, and explain why we do not believe that these developments have increased the odds of a soft landing. US monetary policy likely became tight in November, which has started the recessionary clock. We c...
Since 1970, the track record of US housing recessions as the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for economic recessions is a perfect four out of four: 1974; 1980; 1990; and 2007. If this perfect track record continues, the current US housing recession presages an economic recession that starts in 2023. We di...
Pent-up demand for consumer goods and services will boost Chinese household spending this year. Beyond the next 12 to 18 months, however, structural forces will likely drive Chinese household consumption growth lower than in the pre-pandemic era....
This week’s report considers the risk that inflation will be stickier than we anticipate, and looks at what a fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield might be in a scenario where the Fed keeps the policy rate on hold for a prolonged period....
Long-term drivers, including the growing ability of banks to returns cash to shareholders, point toward a strong structural performance for European financials. However, the ECB’s aggressive tightening campaign could still spoil the party....
The US equity market is in the midst of an earnings contraction driven by slowing sales growth – a manifestation of the weakening economic demand and loss of corporate pricing power that accompany disinflation. The telecommunications industry is a defensive industry that faces many challenges: Low g...
