Latest from BCA Research
Trump is saving face with new tariffs but will avoid any major new tariff shock until 2027. For now, Iran risk will overshadow tariff volatility.
The “Chuck Norris Premium” is now fully in the market. Since the miraculously successful nabbing of President Nicolas Maduro on January 3, the odds of subsequent use of military against Iran increased.
The neutral rate in the US is being propped up by a variety of forces that are at risk of reversing. These include the AI capex boom, large budget deficits, and the extraordinarily high level of household wealth. As such, interest rates are likely to surprise to the downside over the next few years.
Oil price risks remain skewed to the upside over the near term as geopolitical risks continue to dominate. Nevertheless, we ultimately expect bearish fundamentals to reassert themselves over a six-to-12-month timeframe and drive oil prices lower.
Tech has starkly underperformed other equity sectors and the tech-heavy US market has underperformed non-US markets, but global stocks are up and have comfortably outperformed bonds. This pattern of performances is likely to continue through the rest of 2026. Plus, two new tactical trades are: long coffee; and long ETH.
Go long LATAM ex. Brazil banks / short global bank stocks. Brazilian bank equities will underperform due to poor and worsening macro fundamentals.
For this screener report, we explore opportunities in laggards with earnings momentum, Japanese semiconductors and US rate-sensitive stocks.
We spent last week meeting investors in Switzerland. This Strategy Insight revisits the most prominent topics we discussed, including repatriation fears, SNB intervention, and Dutch pension reform.
The capex debate is better framed not as boom versus bubble, but as around capacity, leverage, and cash conversion. ROEs have compressed, but revenue growth and margin expansion offer a credible path back. Spenders likely have time to make good on their investments, though the market’s leash may be shorter than anticipated.
The CNY is undervalued and highly competitive. This gives China room to let the currency appreciate while remaining an export-driven powerhouse, gradually shifting from export intensity toward stronger domestic consumption. This achieves two objectives. First, it narrows the capital account deficit and strengthens the CNY’s role as a global anchor. Second, it enhances Beijing’s geopolitical autonomy by reducing reliance on foreign final demand.